- This oil price update for October 2026 has Brent at $102.25 a barrel, up 6.2% since 6 September, while WTI slipped 0.4% to $91.11, widening the Brent-WTI spread to $11.14.
- Dubai crude rose 15.2% to $113.71 and Murban 7.3% to $110.82; Qatar Land and Al Shaheen fell about 6% on two-day-delayed quotes.
- The Urals quote moved to $105.55, above Brent, though it is a three-day-delayed price.
- JKM rose 7.1% to $25.79 per MMBtu, TTF was flat at $24.46 and Henry Hub gained 2.0% to $3.035.
- NYMEX heating oil fell 0.9% to $4.501 a gallon, while RBOB gasoline rose 3.0% to $3.312.
- A Reuters poll lifted the average 2026 Brent forecast to $89.05 a barrel, from $85.08 a month earlier.
Brent crude finished the week at $102.25 a barrel, back above $100, while WTI ended at $91.11, 0.4% below its early-September level. The gap between the two has widened to $11.14 from $4.80 in the September oil price update, close to the $11.75 recorded in March. Gulf, Russian and gas benchmarks all moved by different amounts, so this oil price update shows a less uniform picture than last month.
October oil price update: Brent leads while WTI stalls
Brent’s 6.2% gain follows the 18% jump of the previous month, taking it to $102.25 from $96.28 on 6 September. Brent is now 53.5% above its January level of $66.60. The Brent crude price page carries the full history and currency conversions.
WTI has gone nowhere. At $91.11 it is down 0.4% from $91.48 a month ago, though still 51.8% above its January level of $60.04. Our WTI crude price tracker shows the Brent-WTI gap at $11.14, against $4.80 a month ago.
Price data comes from OilPrice.com, and all changes below compare with the 6 September readings.
The wider crude oil price page tracks the same benchmarks on a rolling basis, with currency and unit conversions for each.
Benchmark snapshot, 4 October 2026
| Benchmark | Price | Unit | Change since 6 September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $102.25 | per barrel | +6.20% |
| WTI Crude | $91.11 | per barrel | -0.40% |
| Louisiana Light Sweet | $102.02 | per barrel | +4.48% |
| Murban | $110.82 | per barrel | +7.28% |
| DME Oman | $110.88 | per barrel | +9.57% |
| Dubai | $113.71 | per barrel | +15.18% |
| OPEC Basket | $108.82 | per barrel | +10.48% |
| Urals | $105.55 | per barrel | +21.74% |
| Qatar Land | $94.28 | per barrel | -6.02% |
| Al Shaheen | $91.76 | per barrel | -6.43% |
| Henry Hub | $3.035 | per MMBtu | +2.02% |
| JKM | $25.79 | per MMBtu | +7.06% |
| TTF-equivalent | $24.46 | per MMBtu | -0.16% |
| NYMEX heating oil | $4.501 | per gallon | -0.86% |
| RBOB gasoline | $3.312 | per gallon | +3.02% |
Gulf and Russian grades: premiums to Brent widen
Gulf benchmarks rose faster than Brent. Dubai gained 15.2%, DME Oman 9.6% and the OPEC Basket 10.5%, while Murban added 7.3%. Dubai now trades $11.46 above Brent, against a $2.44 premium a month ago, and Murban sits $8.57 above.
Dubai and Urals are three-day-delayed quotes, while Brent and WTI are one-day-delayed futures. Part of the spread may therefore reflect timing rather than a physical premium.
The Urals quote rose 21.7% to $105.55, $3.30 above Brent after a $9.58 discount in early September. That is unusual against the $20-35 discounts typical since 2022, and delivered or loading-port assessments can differ materially from this headline figure.
Qatari crude moved the other way. Qatar Land fell 6.0% to $94.28 and Al Shaheen 6.4% to $91.76, while D.F. and L.S. condensate rose 6.3% to $89.28. The Qatar oil price quotes carry a two-day delay and both crudes rebounded sharply in the latest session, so the monthly decline may narrow.
Texas grades eased with WTI. West Texas Sour stands at $86.09, Eagle Ford at $87.59, North Texas Sweet at $87.25 and East Texas Sweet at $84.50, each down between $0.19 and $0.50 a barrel.
Gas, LNG and refined products in this oil price update
JKM rose 7.1% to $25.79 per MMBtu while the TTF-equivalent benchmark was flat at $24.46, handing Asia a $1.33 premium after Europe led briefly in early September. The LNG price page tracks the spread and the storage economics behind it.
Henry Hub gained 2.0% to $3.035 per MMBtu, leaving the JKM-Henry Hub spread at $22.76. Canada’s AECO C rebounded 53.4% to $1.350 from a very low base and remains less than half the Henry Hub price.
NYMEX heating oil fell 0.9% to $4.501 a gallon, even as Brent rose. The diesel wholesale proxy uses the same contract, so it shows the same figure.
RBOB gasoline moved the other way, up 3.0% to $3.312 a gallon. The gasoline price page shows the margin over Brent narrowing to about $36.85 a barrel, from $38.75 in early September.
Hormuz and the forecasts: what is driving the move
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed at a trickle into late September. Maritime Executive reported that a Kuwaiti tanker was struck on 28 September, after at least four vessels were hit the previous week, and that the International Maritime Organization had confirmed 86 incidents involving vessels in the Persian Gulf area.
Visible transit counts understate Gulf export volumes, though. Goldman Sachs estimated, as reported by OilPrice.com, that Gulf oil exports including cargoes from vessels with transponders switched off reached 23.3 million barrels a day in the latest week, roughly the 2025 average, after doubling during September.
A Reuters poll lifted the average 2026 Brent forecast to $89.05 a barrel from $85.08 in August, with individual forecasts ranging from $77.27 to $97.60. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from 9 September puts Brent at about $90 a barrel for the second half of 2026, $8 above its previous forecast, after an August average of $91. The next outlook is due on 6 October.
OGSN’s analysis of the Hormuz crisis oil storage impact covers the floating-storage fallout from restricted transits.
What this oil price update means for storage and terminal operators
The $11.14 Brent-WTI spread is the figure that matters most for Gulf Coast tank terminals. A gap that wide typically supports export demand, and WTI’s flat month alongside a rising Brent widens the arbitrage rather than closing it.
Premiums on Gulf physical grades point to prompt tightness, which discourages speculative crude storage. The carry trade still depends on the Brent forward curve, which OGSN does not track, so operators should check ICE directly. Rates for onshore and floating capacity are covered in the crude oil storage costs guide.
Distillate operators begin the heating season with NYMEX heating oil about 20% above its early-August level, so summer injections remain in the money even after this month’s 0.9% dip. The diesel price page uses the same proxy and shows the per-litre and per-tonne conversions.
On LNG, JKM’s return above TTF and a $22.76 spread to Henry Hub keep the arbitrage pointing toward Asia. LNG regasification terminals weighing injection against throughput should treat the $1.33 Asian premium as a signal that cargo competition has shifted back east.
Each monthly oil price update compares the new readings with the previous month’s, so the November edition will show how far the Brent-WTI spread and the Dubai premium persist. The EIA’s October outlook on 6 October will show whether the agency revises its second-half Brent forecast again.
What does the Brent-WTI spread tell tank terminal operators?
The spread measures how much more the international benchmark costs than the US benchmark. A wide spread tends to support US crude exports and utilisation at Gulf Coast export terminals, while a narrow spread reduces the incentive to ship crude abroad. It does not by itself show whether the forward curve favours storage.
Why do Dubai and Urals quotes sometimes differ sharply from Brent futures?
Dubai and Urals are physical grade assessments, often published with a delay of several days, while Brent and WTI are exchange-traded futures with a shorter delay. Differences in timing, shipping basis (loading port versus delivered) and grade quality can all widen the gap. Large moves in delayed quotes are best treated with caution until later prints confirm them.
How do oil price moves affect demand for crude storage?
Storage demand follows the shape of the forward curve more than the price level. In contango, where future prices exceed spot, traders can profit from holding crude in tanks, which lifts demand for ullage. In backwardation, holding crude is unattractive and tank utilisation tends to fall.
What is the difference between WTI, Brent and Dubai benchmarks?
WTI is the US benchmark priced for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent is the North Sea reference used for much of the world’s seaborne crude, and Dubai is a Gulf medium sour benchmark used mainly for crude sold to Asia. Grade quality, delivery location and market structure explain why they rarely trade at the same price.
Where does OGSN source its monthly oil price figures?
OGSN compiles benchmark prices from OilPrice.com data on the date of each monthly update and compares them with the previous month’s readings to calculate month-on-month changes. Delayed quotes are flagged where the source publishes them with a lag. Official settlement prices are published by NYMEX (CME Group) and ICE.